The Footprint of the CO2 Plume during Carbon Dioxide Storage in Saline Aquifers: Storage Efficiency for Capillary Trapping at the Basin Scale

We study a sharp-interface mathematical model of CO2 migration in deep saline aquifers, which accounts for gravity override, capillary trapping, natural groundwater flow, and the shape of the plume during the injection period. The model leads to a nonlinear advection–diffusion equation, where the diffusive term is due to buoyancy forces, not physical diffusion. For the case of interest in geological CO2 storage, in which the mobility ratio is very unfavorable, the mathematical model can be simplified to a hyperbolic equation. We present a complete analytical solution to the hyperbolic model. The main outcome is a closed-form expression that predicts the ultimate footprint on the CO2 plume, and the time scale required for complete trapping. The capillary trapping coefficient and the mobility ratio between CO2 and brine emerge as the key parameters in the assessment of CO2 storage in saline aquifers. Despite the many approximations, the model captures the essence of the flow dynamics and therefore reflects proper dependencies on the mobility ratio and the capillary trapping coefficient, which are basin-specific. The expressions derived here have applicability to capacity estimates by capillary trapping at the basin scale.